2011-12 Roster Prediction

Here is what I think the Stan and Q might be thinking for this summer.

Frolik, Stalberg, Brouwer, Bickell and Dowell are gone. IMO, they are disappointment and haven't earned any reason to stay. They should be replaced with tougher veterans.
Kopecky gets a raise.
Morin, Kruger and Salak are your rookies.

This leaves Stan $6 million  ($63 mil cap with a $1 mil room) to fill 4 slots. The four slots needed to be filled is a 2nd line winger, 2 4th liners and the 6th D man. That is plenty of space to make some significant upgrades. There is also about $500k in ELC bonuses in these figures. One could make a case Stan could have $6.5 mil to spend.


Campbell, Brian    $7,142,875
Kane, Patrick    $6,300,000
Toews, Jonathan    $6,300,000
Seabrook, Brent    $5,800,000
Keith, Duncan    $5,538,462
Hossa, Marion    $5,275,000
Sharp, Patrick    $3,900,000
Hjalmarsson, Niklas    $3,500,000
Bolland, Dave    $3,375,000
Leddy    $1,250,000
Scott    $512,500
Kruger    $900,000
Crawford    $2,000,000
Kopecky    $1,750,000
Johnson    $650,000
Morin     $916,667
Salak    $800,000
??  
??  
??  
??  
  
Total    $55,910,504
Est Cap     $63,000,000
Space    $6,089,496

Oshie

Oshie has an unexcuse absence from Blue's practice
Oshie missing from Blues' practice.

Oshie was one of my RFA offer sheet targets. Problem ?

Philly Jacks Up Season Ticket Prices

Phlly season tickets holders just got a big fat increase. This is their first increase in 3 years. Look at the breakdown by rows.

 Murphy7 at HF sums it up.
Flyers going up about 12 percent in lower level, and 15 percent in upper level.
Max increase in lower level is 20 percent for center ice. Max increase in upper level is 87 percent for part of Row 12.
Upper level will now have a different price for every row. First two rows going up an average of 25 percent. Cheap seats (last 4 rows on ends) going up an average of 74 percent.


Good ol' McCub must be salivating to send the Hawks' 11-12 ticket bill. I can kiss my 200 level tickets goodbye.

Welcome to Chicago, Marcus Kruger!!

http://blog.rifftrax.com/wp-content/photos/kruger.jpg

A couple of financial/CBA  nuggets about Kruger

1) He is in year 1 of a 3 year contract with the Hawks. Kruger signed when he was 20 so the UFA clock started ticking when he signed and played 10 game in Sweden.

2) His full year cap hit is $900k. His first year salary  is $590k with bonuses of $310. The following year, it is $715k base with $185k in bonuses. His final year is a $900k base and no bonuses.

Now that is a Ticket Price Hike

Look like the NY Rangers socked it to the middle Levels seat holders

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0Auh7ie0gtt1CdF9yelVfUUVXVTJzVG4ydGJFaThfdWc&output=html

How the US /Canadian Exchange Rate Affects the Salary Cap

Roughly, 30% of NHL league revenues are in Canadian dollars.  The Canadian revenue must be converted into US dollars, in order to determine the salary cap. Therefore, the effect of US/Canadian  exchange rate move can alter the salary cap either way. Per the CBA, the League uses the average of the exchange over a period from July 1st a to June 30th.

Let’s  take a look at how the exchange rate affects the salary cap.
.
For the sake of argument and ease,
1) NHL revenue is flat from season A to  season B
2) The Canadian dollar has appreciated 5% over the same period
3) League revenues $100 for both years.
4) Canadian revenues is $30 Canadian dollars for both years.

Convert  the Canadian Revenues into US dollar: multiply Canadian$30 * 1.05(exchange rate appreciation) = US$ 31.50

Total  League Revenues would be $101.50 Total revenue would increase by 1.5% and the cap would increase just on the Canadian dollar appreciating against  the US dollar.

The flip side would be the cap would go down if the Canadian  dollar depreciated against the US dollar.

Now, let’s take a look at the real exchange rate and the effect on the 2011-12 salary cap.

2009-2010 average exchange rate was 1.0559
2010-2011 average exchange rate through today 1.0150
(source Bank Of Canada)

This means that the Canadian dollar has appreciated 3.8% from year to year through today.

If the revenues are flat in both countries and the exchange rate stays roughly around here, then the cap should increase just based on the exchange rate move this year.

What do you think about this roster with cap hits?

Red is estimated RFA contract

Campbell, Brian    $7,142,875
Kane, Patrick    $6,300,000
Toews, Jonathan    $6,300,000
Seabrook, Brent    $5,800,000
Keith, Duncan    $5,538,462
Hossa, Marion    $5,275,000
Sharp, Patrick    $3,900,000
Hjalmarsson, Niklas    $3,500,000
Bolland, Dave    $3,375,000
Leddy    $1,116,000
Scott    $512,500
Crawford    $1,750,000
Brouwer    $1,500,000
Kopecky    $1,500,000
Johnson    $650,000
Morin     $916,667
Salak    $800,000
Frolik    $1,000,000
   
   
    Total    $56,876,504
Est Cap     $63,000,000
Space    $5,123,496


That gives Bowman $5.1 mil to fill on a 6th D-man, 4th liner agitator  and a  decent winger to play with Hossa and Bolland. It also leaves a $1 mil for injuries and call ups. Dowell is gone in this situation.

Welcome

After posting on various message boards (300level.net, Blackhawkzone)about the Blackhawks cap situation, I finally thought I would start a blog about it.

So, expect  posts about  the cap, the cba and the effects of  new contracts on the Blackhawks. Hopefully, I won't put you to sleep (that's if anyone reads this).